Oil Man--FxMozart's Blog: 2006

Saturday, October 21, 2006

New positions, trades and ideas

Look at them HERE:

www.oilman-forex.com

Thursday, October 12, 2006

New positions

Short 7481 AUD$
Long $Y 119.31
Short EUR$ 1.2558
Short GBP$ 1.8605
Look

Wednesday, October 11, 2006

Tuesday, October 10, 2006

Euro keeps going down as expected key area now 1.2450 , an important area, which opens new downside targets if broken close to 1.2040.

A bounce on the trendline isnt to be ruled out even though everything as of now pointing to continuation of the move.

A good trend is starting

Cannes Oil man 14:32 GMT October 10, 2006
The sign of the trend is picking up form.
After watching the market and seeing each time how the general market respond.
The masses are now all short $'s , against the euro and long bonds.
They are now looking at a shocking -20% on their bonds if they bought as their bankers advised 1-2.5 years ago..
Trying to pick a bigger trend in bonds while it was close to 1% or 2% interest rates..
This position accoupled with net short's positions , are now being passed around out in september..As for now, all this people see the euro has a great addon to their already thinning portofolios..Under 1.2450 , they will close this risk ..now going long $'s..finishes at 1.20 ..There is a last spike and the market reverses..

A clear sign that the Euro's are just quiet now, though many are posting still contra trades , many are still long , silently waiting an upside move , while seeing daily the prices move down, adding event further at the moment.

Then they close and the swift action starts, under 1.2450 ..Acceleration of the downward moves..Lest we go in new range pattern 1.2450-1.2660 for another 2 months.

3 years of Oil man's Calls Resumé.

PAST Predictions:

UAE Oil man 10:40 GMT January 6, 2003
First 1.075x �

Then 1.0450

Then 1.16+

1.12

1.26

the coccoon is ready to mature!

UAE Oil man 17:48 GMT January 10, 2003
$yen :

115 line will be tested..(one could buy THERE and try 114.98)

you see 114.98 Sell for 109=>100=>83.
GL.

moscow Oil man 17:41 GMT May 20, 2003
just sell usd !! euro still very undervalued ..

UAE Oil man 03:46 GMT May 27, 2003
Some may well remember 135-115 post..(last year)

Well here are the new cookies one year new targets.

usdjpy 115-83 (Break break 114.98!!Let it drop ..)

Euro 1.1-1.4..

Usdchf 1.4-1.12

Gold 350-420

oil 34-40+..

GL and good trades to all

Oil man's 06:54 GMT May 27, 2004
Our systematic approach on the $/CAD is currently to be shorting the $/CAD 1.37-1.39.
Ideally targetting low 1.2's.
On a technical analysis side, we note several trending indicators which possibly indicate further strenght in Canadian dollars.Some of this indicators are currently as bearish as $CAD 1.60,However signals do change (we were Long $cad from lower levels before the break 1.3870)and we'll stick to the value of the signal until our risk limits are hit (sorry if that is obvious.)

As for the fundamentals for the strenghtning of the Canadian dollar, I (personally) feel the surge in oil prices will be a big part of it.

Best regards.

Future , Immediate predictions

Cannes Oil man 07:48 GMT September 11, 2006

$/CAD:
For me 1.1220 is a break , a place to ADD to long positions ..
1.1220->1.1365->1.19.

Cannes Oil man 13:56 GMT September 28, 2006
Added $CAD 1.1092.
Great prices, the canadian oil&mergers is offering top prices for us spot traders.

-Bought CALL $/CAD 1.12 expiracy January 10 KO 1.21 ;prem 92 pips.
gl gt.

Cannes Oil man 13:42 GMT September 28, 2006
The market was very nice, giving a panic spike (which i mouth pieced about well enough aka: €1.282-£1.9060, sometimes makes me feel like a broken record.)
---
Now offcourse people are going to chase the tail , while market drops , and drops.
---
Cannes Oil man 08:43 GMT September 27, 2006
once 1.2612 is open 1.2520 open the gateways..

Cannes Oil man 09:02 GMT September 27, 2006
Current :
-Short 1.2827 S/L entries T/P 1.23
-Short 1.9060 S/L entries T/P 1.8630
-Put 1.9023 P/T 1.8800 S/L None
-Long $CAD 1.1130 & 35 S/L 1.1080 T/P 1.1360-1.16

Cannes Oil man 17:26 GMT September 18, 2006
Meanwhile i don't rule a quick spike to the upside cleaning out the shorts , and the continuation of the lowering ranges (Descending triangle ranges as seen on the charts i posted)..I am still long and for the moment(friday 1.264x) waiting a upside spike to take profits and go shorts 1.2750/1.2860..
---
I m even going to add that : if this €$ doesnt break 1.2860 today , and starts going back down, it might be the high till new test of 1.2630 and i feel break below(my target is 1.23)..Risk still 1.2860+ for the day.
gl.

No prisoners.

This is the $Y , when it starts moving...

People looking for downside get chopped and margin called..

Then when everyone is done for , this is the rest..

Monday, October 09, 2006

Yen Trendlines.

Trendlines are coming to play.

121 and 125-128 (That one depends if you take the shadows into account).

Most tech's don't (so 125).

Oil stories

Oil chart posted below , with broken trendline..5 days break out

60.87 on upside
57.63 on downside

60.87 goes targets 62.50.

However 57 goes targets the gateways 55.00 which broken opens the whole downside to 43.

Friday, October 06, 2006

Eurusd Going down as indicated.

Updated Charts..

The euro is finally breaking out of it's ranges , like indicated for the past weeks.

Here is the updated charts with first support coming off at 1.2570 and 1.2550

Thursday, October 05, 2006

EUR$ Trade

Short 1.2715 S/L 35 (Now lowered them to entries) T/P 1.2660

Wednesday, October 04, 2006

Eurusd New charts

Eurusd support 1.2615 needs to break for 1.2550 gateways.

The way of the Dollar.

The dollar is finally showing signs of picking up steam , as commodities slump.

€$ pivotal level at 1.2613 , Still short this week from 1.2750 , GBP 1.8888 short , and offcourse $/CAD 1.1092 long (T/P 1.16-1.20).

It is time we break out of the insane ranges, and see new price levels.

Saturday, September 30, 2006

The Way of the Loon

I feel $/CAD has reached a turning point.

Chart-wise there's nothing to really say so , however with inter market bottom picking analysis, I come to the Conclusion that it has reached a medium term turning point.

-Oil prices are diving.
-Rising interest rates in the US (other countries will follow , but that gives the US$ the advantage of the start).
-Euro is not going anywhere but ranging inside a downward triangle (Look previous blog chart for Euro)

Can Canadian continue after the merges are done , while all the above continue?

Therefore CALL $/CAD STRIKE 1.1200 (spot ref 1.1092) Expiracy January 10 .(Premium 90 pips , Target 1.16-1.20 january)

The time has come for the Loon to pick-up it's wings and fly away once more.

Oil man.

€$ at 1.2670

The €$ has fallen back , took profits under 1.27 from 1.282 , reshort next week close to 1.2740 for the break under 1.2610.

Monday, September 25, 2006

E$ updated charts..

The giants and awaited spike has arrived , Short 1.28-1.2920 comes as a good strategy to target 1.23-1.25..

Over 1.2920 the trade will definitely be wrong, and long the way to go..However €$ will be having much problem going over 1.30 , when it's negative carry are taking a toll to Long termer's holding sentiment.

Myself should 1.2828.

Friday, September 22, 2006

GBPCAD

GBPCAD looks very bullish as long price above 2.09..

Fibbo's Target Are in the data window..

2.14
2.19
2.24

Current price :
2.1236

OZI Futures charts..Perspectives ?

What's happening with the OZI?

Broke long term Trendline on the futures?

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Sold €$ 1.2745 T/P ------1.26----1.23

See previous post for charts on €$

USDJPY 116.53 Max down back to 118.30

Monday, September 18, 2006

€$ updated ..SOB upticks 1.2840 Risk 1.23 T/P

Updat

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

US Deficits Vs US$

Where is the Correlation everyone talks about?

Monday, September 11, 2006

Naked Trades

When trading without a plan or hedge, it is often called a Naked trade...

But what about a NAKED TRADER?

Correlation work.

5 Year Treasury VS DJI

May it never happen again.

Already years have passed , and the 9/11 is still on everyone's mind,

May this kind of horrors never happen again.

My heart goes to all that Died , and Famillies who lost dear ones,

-Oil man

Market sentiment reflection.

Market sentiment is alas like little enfantile children , one day in that direction , and everyone is talking of one thing , making it a very important and paramount point (Deficits for exemple) , the next day , forgetting ALL about the previous day, just like everything has been magically fixed.

Attention span of 5 minutes , loosing techniks very well appreciated by the brokers, who see people click , stops , limits in 5 minutes as the rush of bullish/bearish-ness subsides.

EurUSD updated charts

Here's the updated HS i pointed out last week.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Domino effect., the worst in front of us.

Electronic Domino effect .

The worst is in front of us.

Each domino , pushing the other one, stops being hit , bringing a faster and swifter form of crash.

Friday, September 08, 2006

IMM's views and charts.

Very extended CAD Futures , the $/CAD going towards 1.19 seems the path of least resistance.

-Oil man.

Thanks peter and the www.currency-bulletin for the charts.

ejap

EuroDol Long term Reconstructed charts+ 100% Automated Analysis

Made with TS.

Bollinger Bands (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.

MACD (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the fast moving average crosses above or below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the MACD average may indicate a short term decline within the next few bars.

TRIX (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: TRIX (16.20) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. TRIX is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. A modest downturn is possible here.

ADX (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, a falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Average True Range (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: Average True Ran ge measures relative volatility. Most analysts associate periods of relatively low volatility with market bottoms, while periods of higher than average volatility tend to indicate market tops.

Additional Analysis: Average True Range just reached an 18 bar low, offering some evidence that a bottom is forming here.

Expert Analyst (Indicator):
Long Term Outlook: The major trend is up. A rising ADX value suggests a continuation in the current trend. Most Moving Average studies, and Bollinger Bands are bearish for the long term, suggesting lower levels ahead.

Short Term Outlook: The short term trend has changed from up to down. Most trend following indicators (i.e. Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, etc.) are in bearish territory short term, indicating that a decline is likely. However, a short term trading rally is possible here as the market finds some support near the lower Bollinger Band. Looking exclusively at Stochastics: The short term trend looks a little toppy. A possible short term down move may occur.