Saturday, September 30, 2006

The Way of the Loon

I feel $/CAD has reached a turning point.

Chart-wise there's nothing to really say so , however with inter market bottom picking analysis, I come to the Conclusion that it has reached a medium term turning point.

-Oil prices are diving.
-Rising interest rates in the US (other countries will follow , but that gives the US$ the advantage of the start).
-Euro is not going anywhere but ranging inside a downward triangle (Look previous blog chart for Euro)

Can Canadian continue after the merges are done , while all the above continue?

Therefore CALL $/CAD STRIKE 1.1200 (spot ref 1.1092) Expiracy January 10 .(Premium 90 pips , Target 1.16-1.20 january)

The time has come for the Loon to pick-up it's wings and fly away once more.

Oil man.

€$ at 1.2670


The €$ has fallen back , took profits under 1.27 from 1.282 , reshort next week close to 1.2740 for the break under 1.2610.

Monday, September 25, 2006

E$ updated charts..



The giants and awaited spike has arrived , Short 1.28-1.2920 comes as a good strategy to target 1.23-1.25..

Over 1.2920 the trade will definitely be wrong, and long the way to go..However €$ will be having much problem going over 1.30 , when it's negative carry are taking a toll to Long termer's holding sentiment.


Myself should 1.2828.

Friday, September 22, 2006

GBPCAD


GBPCAD looks very bullish as long price above 2.09..

Fibbo's Target Are in the data window..

2.14
2.19
2.24

Current price :
2.1236

OZI Futures charts..Perspectives ?


What's happening with the OZI?

Broke long term Trendline on the futures?

Tuesday, September 12, 2006

US Deficits Vs US$

Where is the Correlation everyone talks about?




Monday, September 11, 2006

Naked Trades

When trading without a plan or hedge, it is often called a Naked trade...


But what about a NAKED TRADER?

Correlation work.


5 Year Treasury VS DJI

May it never happen again.

Already years have passed , and the 9/11 is still on everyone's mind,

May this kind of horrors never happen again.

My heart goes to all that Died , and Famillies who lost dear ones,


-Oil man

Market sentiment reflection.

Market sentiment is alas like little enfantile children , one day in that direction , and everyone is talking of one thing , making it a very important and paramount point (Deficits for exemple) , the next day , forgetting ALL about the previous day, just like everything has been magically fixed.

Attention span of 5 minutes , loosing techniks very well appreciated by the brokers, who see people click , stops , limits in 5 minutes as the rush of bullish/bearish-ness subsides.

EurUSD updated charts

Here's the updated HS i pointed out last week.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

Domino effect., the worst in front of us.


Electronic Domino effect .

The worst is in front of us.

Each domino , pushing the other one, stops being hit , bringing a faster and swifter form of crash.

Friday, September 08, 2006

IMM's views and charts.




Very extended CAD Futures , the $/CAD going towards 1.19 seems the path of least resistance.


-Oil man.




Thanks peter and the www.currency-bulletin for the charts.

ejap

EuroDol Long term Reconstructed charts+ 100% Automated Analysis


Made with TS.


Bollinger Bands (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.

MACD (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bullish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the fast moving average crosses above or below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bullish territory. However, the recent downturn in the MACD average may indicate a short term decline within the next few bars.

TRIX (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: TRIX (16.20) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. TRIX is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. A modest downturn is possible here.

ADX (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, a falling ADX indicates that the current trend is weakening and may possibly reverse. Look for a choppy market ahead.

Average True Range (Indicator):
Conventional Interpretation: Average True Range measures relative volatility. Most analysts associate periods of relatively low volatility with market bottoms, while periods of higher than average volatility tend to indicate market tops.

Additional Analysis: Average True Range just reached an 18 bar low, offering some evidence that a bottom is forming here.

Expert Analyst (Indicator):
Long Term Outlook: The major trend is up. A rising ADX value suggests a continuation in the current trend. Most Moving Average studies, and Bollinger Bands are bearish for the long term, suggesting lower levels ahead.

Short Term Outlook: The short term trend has changed from up to down. Most trend following indicators (i.e. Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, etc.) are in bearish territory short term, indicating that a decline is likely. However, a short term trading rally is possible here as the market finds some support near the lower Bollinger Band. Looking exclusively at Stochastics: The short term trend looks a little toppy. A possible short term down move may occur.






Thursday, September 07, 2006

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

EURCHF Updated

Good R/R shorting 1.5810 area up to 1.5850 T/P 1.54-1.55 , 2 months time tops..Stops 1.5860/80 tops.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

$Yen Reversed to Long!


115.64 Long ..

Stops 115.30

T/P 116.60

Monday, September 04, 2006

$Yen Updated charts.


Well $Yen moved down as expected , here's the updated chart.

€CHF will it break 5 years resistances?

Weekly zoomed out...
Zoomed Weekly charts.

$Yen Moving as expected to the down side..


$Yen broke the supports , and seems to be on his way to much lower targets..